Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Man, I hope this is true.

Commercial reloader Andrew Scott sez that he may be seeing a tipping point in .22 rimfire ammo that just might be indicating a return to normalcy.
What all of this boils down to is this: I think we’ve hit a tipping point in the .22 market. Now that we are beginning to see high-end brands in stock, I think the rest of the obstacles standing between us and cheap 22 ammo (price-gougers, panic-driven demand, scarcity-driven demand, etc.) will begin to topple like dominoes.
I for one sure hope he's right.  The artificially-induced and -maintained shortage has gone on long enough and Teh Stoopid really can stop now.

What he says makes sense to me, based on what I've seen myself, and heard from others whose opinion I trust.  I stopped even asking about .22 a while ago, and although Alaska usually seems to lag a bit behind most trends, I'll have to start looking again to see if I can confirm it.  Would be nice to have an actual shooting stock again--not least because I've got a daughter who is ready to get started.  :-)


Joel said...

Y'know, I'm still perplexed by the ongoing .22 shortage. Yes, I know the standard 'hoarders are doing it' explanation but I still don't entirely buy it. Hoarding a particular item is essentially a fad, and have you ever known a fad to go on so long? And why haven't hoarder stocks reached saturation yet? When I go in a Wal-Mart and still see "no .22" signs, which I did recently, I question assertions that an end to the shortage is just around the corner.

Granted that I live out in the sticks and maybe things are different in cities: Last summer - a year ago - the only retailer in the little town nearest where I live put out a sign advertising .22-by-the-brick, and it was cheap standard-velocity ammo at a premium price, and it was a big event that ended within a day and that hasn't been repeated since to my knowledge. So I'm still waiting to see this easing I keep hearing about.

Kevin Wilmeth said...

Not sure I can argue against you there Joel--mostly I'm just hopeful for what my own experience might reveal over the next several months.

Point taken about the fad idea, but I always saw it as two dynamics, not one. I think the true panic buying from "everyone" gave way, at some point, to a smaller demographic which simply saw an enterprise to exploit; some of those are the scalpers that we have seen already, but I suspect there have been others who have simply been acquiring ammo as a commodity for the future. Someone doing that might never even make the radar, and if they're stuffing their mattress for SHTF currency rather than for personal use, there'd hardly be such a thing as "enough". And so I think the original panic was a political fad, where this other dynamic seems more like an investment fad--something that can go on much longer.

And I admit, there's a part of me that really hopes that if there have been a small bunch of yahoos distorting the market by scarfing up a disruptive share, that the eventual correction gives 'em a big fat raspberry.

The best thing I can say about the .22 shortage, personally, is that it got me into airgunnery. No matter how things pan out in rimfire-land, I'm going to take that as a plus. :-)

Paul Bonneau said...

I think it was a combination of factors. I just don't buy the gov conspiracy in this one, as there seems little point in denying the peons .22LR. Now if it was 5.56, then it would make some sense.

Paul Bonneau said...

By the way, stock up soon. Things will go stupid again as soon as Hitlery gets elected. :-)